The Republican Party in the United States faces an interesting decision heading into the 2016 election. Do they go with a candidate who is a known heavyweight (Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, or even Chris Christie) or do they go for someone a little out of left field (Ted Cruz, Mike Lee or Rand Paul). This has been a decision Republicans have had to make ever since the Tea Party and even further back to Barry Goldwater. In 2012, as we know, they chose former Salt Lake City mayor Mitt Romney from the heavyweight group to run against the incumbent President Barack Obama. He lost in what was a tough race. Ever since the election, Republicans have been searching for their next candidate.
My take is that they should end up going for someone like Rand Paul or Chris Christie, due to a couple of reasons.
1) Mitt Romney will surely not be given a second go, given his 2012 failure and political baggage.
2) Mike Lee is too much of an unknown quantity to a party that knows it will face an experienced campaigner.
3) Ted Cruz is unpopular in many critical swing states due to his part in the Government shutdown last year, and is one candidate who, due to his age, will be around for years to come, and therefore their will be more opportunities for him to run later down the line.
Of course, another name to discuss is Jeb Bush, who to my mind is the dark horse in all of this, because he is just far enough away from his brother, George W. Bush to have negative political baggage. However, many people do still remember his role in 2000 election when he was Governor of Florida. It is for this reason that I don’t see him as a main contender for the Republican nomination.
Which gets us down to two, libertarian Rand Paul from Kentucky and Governor Chris Christie from New Jersey. Right now, in the aftermath of Bridgegate, I think Chris Christie would do well to play his cards close to his chest, due to the potential negative popularity impact from that fiasco. Rand Paul is not the Governor of a state, instead a humble Senator, who has steadily been building popularity not only with fellow Republicans due to his ability to stand with the Constitution, but also with the average person, due to his attacking of the Iraq invasion in 2003 and solid beliefs.
To my mind, Rand Paul would be a very difficult candidate for Democrats to hit hard, due to a lack of political baggage. Unlike many Republicans, he is not a Tea Party maniac, who the average voter can’t identify with, and he’s also not an ultra-establishment Republican who the average person is fed up with. Another thing that augurs well for Rand is that he doesn’t seem to be the enemy of Fox News and conservative talk radio shows that his father, Ron, used to be. This is a major plus for Rand, who has just seen the fall of ultra-establishment GOP heir apparent Eric Cantor to Tea Partier Dave Brat, due in no small part to Brat’s endorsement by such personalities as Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin. It is this backing by conservative personalities that will be one of the more interesting subplots as we get closer to 2016.
In closing, I think Rand Paul would be my pick if I were the Republican Party nominating a candidate for the 2016 election.
The Paddy File 